Trading Twitter: Where Noise Becomes Signal — video included
by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge
October 12, 2013
Over four years ago when we discussed the high frequency predator traders feasting on the signals of others, few believed it possible (and fewer still comprehended it). Today there is another potential disruptor in US equity market microstructure, the transformation of noise to signal from the overwhelming drivel of a Twitter stream. Macro signals (the hashcrash in April when AP’s account was hacked and this week’s Israeli military tweet misunderstanding) have had dramatic effects on the market but individual stock trading success remains elusive.
For social media stocks trading, “sentiment” implied from the Twitter stream leads prices by hours according to a recent study, but while tweets can contain useful information – it is far from guaranteed. “You have to be happy with a lot of noise in your data,” one advocate notes, but, as the FT notes, a recent PhD study of the translation of twitter noise to actionable signal perhaps sums it up best, “The proponents of this idea really do exaggerate it… I’m not saying there’s nothing here, but I’m not saying you can print money either.”
Of course, the biggest drawback (for now), not even the most advanced language processing algo can comprehend sarcasm.
…traders are starting to look at Twitter not as a buy or sell in itself but as a way to generate hot tips on other stocks.
The idea is a simple one: the 500m daily messages on Twitter put online the sort of gossip usually only available in snippets by eavesdropping in bars or the office lift. Apply some moderately sophisticated computer filtering, and out should pop market-moving news and views investors can use.
Twitter has already demonstrated its potential to move markets, with the “hash crash” – named for the “#” symbols used on the microblogging service – knocking 145 points off the Dow Jones Industrial Average in April on the back of a false tweet from a hacked wire service account.
This week brought another example, with some traders blaming a misunderstood Israeli military tweet referring to bombing Syria in the 1973 war for a $1 per barrel drop in the oil price on Thursday.
…
“You have to be happy with a lot of noise in your data,”
…
The latest attempt to prove that Twitter contains useful information comes from Ilya Zheludev, a PhD student at University College London… “The proponents of this idea really do exaggerate it,” Mr Zheludev says. “If it really was as possible as they think it is, first of all they wouldn’t publicise it and second they would be rolling in cash.”
“I’m not saying there’s nothing here, but I’m not saying you can print money either.”
…
For most stocks there were not enough tweets to generate statistically significant volumes, while for the FTSE and many large companies – including Google, Intel and Bank of America – the sentiment had a stronger link to past price moves than future ones.
But 11 of the 50 financial instruments tested showed a statistically significant link,
…
Joe Gits, founder of Chicago-based Social Media Analytics, says that he expects a turnover of $60m in two years from his system.
…
He has big expectations. “I think it’s going to become every bit as big as earnings estimates in the not-too-distant future,” he says.
…
Previous attempts to trade purely on the back of social media data have come unstuck. Mr Peterson ran a hedge fund based on signals from social media, but gave up after finding it did not work for the biotech sector. In London Derwent Capital set up the first Twitter hedge fund in 2011, but quietly closed down again just a month later.
…
Mr Zheludev’s approach is rather more complex than the simple algorithms used by some early traders to extract signals from the online noise. But even the most advanced language processing has trouble with much of Twitter: they cannot process sarcasm.
Here is Ilya Zheludev presenting his thoughts last year at a TED Talk:
Social media is more than just Facebook updates and Twitter posts. The term also refers to any user-generated online content, from readers’ comments on articles in the Financial Times to blog posts. Social media is traditionally seen as just benefiting the end-user: the friends exchanging photos on Facebook. But its value is far greater than that — the amount of publically accessible data that social media generates is phenomenally large. Just by way of example, there are 6 million Facebook views every minute. Harnessing that largely untouched data correctly has unbelievable implications: we’re able to see into the future. We can predict so many facets of life, from the spread of disease to the time and location of the next military uprising. Social media lets us see into the minds of millions, in real time — something that has never been possible before. The future isn’t a great unknown any longer.
Being specifically interested in Finance, Ilya’s research is driven by the relationship between the internet’s ‘mood’ and financial markets.
The bottom line is that in a world in which signal is gone courtesy of central planning and where only the Fed’s H.4.1 statement (the weekly balance sheet update) matters (as we said back in January 2010); market participants are desperate for any “edge”, even if it means creating signal out of pure reactionary noise.
[h/t: NWO Truth]
Apocalypse Programming and “Knowing” the End of the World
ZenGardner.com
October 2, 2013
by Zen Gardner
There’s lot going on right now with all of these frantic so-called “preparedness” drills. With government closing and the lights in Washington going out you can’t help but wonder. And what comes to mind? The many end of the world scenarios we’ve had pumped at us from birth, sensationalized heavily by “special effects” frenzied Hollywand.
Do they really know something? Or is this just more fear programming to gain a tighter grip on humanity. Or is it both?
We can pretty much assume insider media moguls and movie producers have a lot of information at their fingertips we’re apparently not privy to. How they get this info is almost fun to visualize, almost like an old Spy vs Spy cartoon. Only these control creeps are ugly and dark.
Actually, many producers and writers have openly testified they’ve been “given” the ideas or script outlines by apparent “operatives”. This is especially the case when they show these huge scenes of massive military operations or the propaganda is particularly pointed; you then know the “suppliers” of all this equipment and backdrop have a heavy hand on the scale.
It’s clearly a pervasive factor in the content of these movies. The scale of social engineering on our planet is extraordinary.
Apocalypse In The News
The social programmers love this subject. While they try to keep their credibility with the more wary audience with comments about “crackpots, kooks and conspiracy nuts”, these Illuminist media controllers push the End of the World scenario big time.
We’ve seen the alien invasion how many times? Even the White House gets blasted on several occasions. We’ve had the asteroid impact over and over. Plagues killing us off are big, as are huge earthquake scenarios. Even a frozen future world with ‘Day After Tomorrow’ type movies. And it gets more bizarre all the time.
It’s imprinting, or entraining the human psyche. Also known as programming. In this case it’s predictive programming.
Don’t you find it ironic they produce this stuff hand over fist and then these same elitists and their complicit media and education stooges work hard to belittle anyone who actually believes it? Isn’t that called getting “jerked around”?
Actually it’s a very sophisticated mind control technique, a deliberate mixture of traumatized cognitive dissonance while injecting predictive programming. It’s all acclimating their subjects to manipulated tension, fear and the ever present threat and even assumed “knowledge” of eventual apocalypse. Nasty psychopathic bastards, in a nutshell. But it’s effective.
Why, you ask? Are there deliberate forces out to decimate our planet? Is this what was done to Mars and other worlds by some parasitic other dimensional force?
The simple greed explanation makes no sense in the light of the suicidal rape and destruction of our planet we’re witnessing. There is a bigger picture we need to be aware of. Fortunately with that comes the empowerment to use the right tools to combat such an apparently inter-dimensional parasitic force.
But I digress…or did I?
The Looming “Kill Shot” Solar Flare and Grid Failure Drills
“Knowing” – A Massive Example of Programming
This movie keeps coming back to me and I understand why, especially recently. With incoming comets, reports of hundreds of fireballs, and our central star undergoing a magnetic flip and shutdown influencing our deliberately destabilized planet in profound ways, it’s no wonder.
The movie “Knowing” is slow as far as movies go, and Nicolas Cage is pretty much the same guy you see in all his movies. The plot is actually relatively simple, and is drawn out using interim catastrophes leading up to the big revelation at the end as his child gets swept into the phenomenon of hearing the “whisperers” who’ve given coded warning messages to a couple of generations of contactees of what’s about to transpire.
Nick goes a bit berserk as he figures out the code and traces the predicted disasters, but his passionate search culminates when he decodes the last line of the predictive numbers as “ee”…the “end of everything”.
First the Official Trailer for the Effect…
This next clip is pretty amazing. I don’t necessarily go along with all of the interpretations, but you’ll have to admit there are a lot of hinting “coincidences” that are jammed into this movie.
This was released a year before the gulf oil disaster and way before Fukushima.
The Bigger Implication
By the way, in the story the aliens who gave the messages and keep appearing and whispering to the kids are these light beings disguised as “men in black” types. They eventually lead them to where these space craft will take them off planet to safety just before the event. In fact, they and other chosen children around the globe are deposited in other worlds to propagate, as in the Garden of Eden story imprinted on the human conscience.
Despite the Programming….
Once you stop wondering, you’ve stopped.
I may not go for Hollywood’s tricks, but I like to think freely, outside of paradigms. And I like to try to understand the message I’m “supposed to be getting” for what it is and I try not to swallow it hook, line and sinker. But to also not discard whatever I’m being given offhandedly as if there’s no truth to anything.
Hey…knowing is knowing…and I’m often wondering what others seem to be knowing…if they really know anything. Or if they’re just trying to program me again, ha! Oh how they don’t realize how on to them we are!
We need to be awake and aware, and alive. Love, understanding and right knowledge then come with the territory.
Love, Zen
by Zen Gardner
There’s lot going on right now with all of these frantic so-called “preparedness” drills. With government closing and the lights in Washington going out you can’t help but wonder. And what comes to mind? The many end of the world scenarios we’ve had pumped at us from birth, sensationalized heavily by “special effects” frenzied Hollywand.
Do they really know something? Or is this just more fear programming to gain a tighter grip on humanity. Or is it both?
We can pretty much assume insider media moguls and movie producers have a lot of information at their fingertips we’re apparently not privy to. How they get this info is almost fun to visualize, almost like an old Spy vs Spy cartoon. Only these control creeps are ugly and dark.
Actually, many producers and writers have openly testified they’ve been “given” the ideas or script outlines by apparent “operatives”. This is especially the case when they show these huge scenes of massive military operations or the propaganda is particularly pointed; you then know the “suppliers” of all this equipment and backdrop have a heavy hand on the scale.
It’s clearly a pervasive factor in the content of these movies. The scale of social engineering on our planet is extraordinary.
Apocalypse In The News
The social programmers love this subject. While they try to keep their credibility with the more wary audience with comments about “crackpots, kooks and conspiracy nuts”, these Illuminist media controllers push the End of the World scenario big time.
We’ve seen the alien invasion how many times? Even the White House gets blasted on several occasions. We’ve had the asteroid impact over and over. Plagues killing us off are big, as are huge earthquake scenarios. Even a frozen future world with ‘Day After Tomorrow’ type movies. And it gets more bizarre all the time.
It’s imprinting, or entraining the human psyche. Also known as programming. In this case it’s predictive programming.
Don’t you find it ironic they produce this stuff hand over fist and then these same elitists and their complicit media and education stooges work hard to belittle anyone who actually believes it? Isn’t that called getting “jerked around”?
Actually it’s a very sophisticated mind control technique, a deliberate mixture of traumatized cognitive dissonance while injecting predictive programming. It’s all acclimating their subjects to manipulated tension, fear and the ever present threat and even assumed “knowledge” of eventual apocalypse. Nasty psychopathic bastards, in a nutshell. But it’s effective.
Why, you ask? Are there deliberate forces out to decimate our planet? Is this what was done to Mars and other worlds by some parasitic other dimensional force?
The simple greed explanation makes no sense in the light of the suicidal rape and destruction of our planet we’re witnessing. There is a bigger picture we need to be aware of. Fortunately with that comes the empowerment to use the right tools to combat such an apparently inter-dimensional parasitic force.
But I digress…or did I?
– See more at: http://www.zengardner.com/knowing-disaster-programming/#sthash.qJqORDa1.dpuf
VIDEO — Default Deadline: US incompetence, can-kicking or clown show?
RT
October 16, 2013
In the midst of a looming default deadline, US lawmakers have agreed on a deal to raise the country’s debt limit and reboot the government. It now must be approved by both Republicans and Democrats, whose infighting brought the world’s richest nation to the brink of default. RT’s Washington bureau is covering the latest developments and expert analysis can be heard in a discussion between RT’s Anissa Naouai and Neil McCabe, Gerald Celente, Keith Boyfield, and Curtis Ellis.
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DOCUMENTARY — World Premiere: SHADE the Motion Picture — Watch Now! [full film]
Ladies and Gentlemen, the long-awaited world premiere of the epic documentary film SHADE the Motion Picture is here.

(Photo: Wikimedia Commons)
Staff Writer | October 15, 2013 | 5:43pm EST
(INTELLIHUB) — An Ambellas & Bermas film. SHADE the Motion Picture exposes the true power structure embedded in our global reality, showing the true controllers their plans to Geo-engineer our planet and control the populace.
Visit http://www.shadethemotionpicture.com to order a DVD, rent or download the film.
Follow the filmmakers @JasonBermas and @ShepardAmbellas on Twitter.
Shop at http://www.mypatriotsupply.com for all of your preparedness needs.
A portion of this film was made possible by MyPatriotSupply.com
SHADE the Motion Picture ©2013 Unbound Productions LLC
Support the filmmakers! Purchase a DVD, download or rent the film now!
http://www.shadethemotionpicture.com
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VIDEO — Warning of Financial Apocalypse by Design #n3
Charlie Mcgrath
October 13, 2013
The Technocrats want you terrified.
Important link
http://www.wideawakenews.com/
http://www.rense.com/
LATEST DOOM CAST
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmfHjp…
Austin Special
http://www.austincoins.com/offer/OPM-…
http://www.austincoins.com/offer/Silv…
Attached
http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2011…
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2…
VIDEO — Vet Invasion: US ex-service personnel storm Washington amid shutdown
RT
October 14, 2013
In just 3 days, the U.S. will be forced to make a decision that will affect the entire global economy. If lawmakers don’t find a way to re-open the frozen government, and then agree to raise the national debt ceiling. America will default on its debts. If that happens, the shock would be felt well beyond its own borders. RT’s Anissa Naouai has the details. READ MORE: http://on.rt.com/ptxstq
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RT (Russia Today) is a global news network broadcasting from Moscow and Washington studios. RT is the first news channel to break the 1 billion YouTube views benchmark.
VIDEO — Drone Laws Restrict Civilian UAV’s but allow Government
We Are Change
October 14, 2013
In this Video Luke Rudkowski talks to Colin Guinn, the CEO and creator of the DJI Phantom. DJI Innovations creates a consumer unmanned aerial vehicle that are used for aerial videoography. In this interview Colin describes the laws surrounding civilian UAVs use and the potential of this technology actually being used for good.
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